Reading this forum - Gerome needs to be praised at his forecasting of the disaster which is now at our door. His forum was well written and makes for good reading.
Yes it has nothing to do with planning or Boom how long? but it was even better it was waving the warnings flags that the shit was going to hit the fan.

This is what makes some of the posts intelligent and worthwhile reading. Not like some other mumbo jumbo rubish that usualy gets posted. I hope some members will follow your example.

Thanks.

Safak,

Good to read your positive outlook

Well, we re-started this debate and the CNN changed its slide to "ROAD TO RECOVERY".

Should I trust them and start spending????

Or this may be another scam???

Charles,

It’s not over yet, recession is an economic cycle. But maybe it will take time to recover for Dubai due to foreign invested projects.

Normally government take bold steps to reduce the effect on its economy. Yes, Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi & Qatar felt the global crisis but it will not take long happy days is coming back soon.

Sometimes recession is a blessing in disguise to other big spenders like Abu Dhabi. There’s rumors that they’re even buying Dubai companies, and lately acquired a big portion of Daimler Co. (Mercedes-Benz). Some developers are taking advantage of the drop in material prices (-30%) but this can be seen from mid-late 2009.

Regards,
R. Catalan

That may be true of the Civils Construction boom but the O&G construction is still plodding on, albeit guardedly.
O&G sector cut too truthlessly last dip and many people did not come back into the profession.
Speculative dock slots have probably stopped, big offshore projects in W. Africa still going ahead. OPEC want price barrel of crude to be 75$ and by hook or crook, thats what it will be by late 2009/2010.

Just like the so called "financial experts", some planners got it right. Some didn’t.

Hi all
Well, I believe engineers are not only TECHNICALLY SOUND but really good financial experts too. Just read this post & you will know.

I thought its good to re-alive this post as someone out there had a better vision than many.

But, I want to take a step further. Since the bust is here now and we know it will not last forever, I ask

WHAT SECTOR WOULD IT BE THE FIRST TO SHOW SIGN OF REVIVAL AND EVENTUALLY PUT THE ECONOMY BACK ON TRACK???

What have I said !!!
Dubai was AN EXAMPLE !!!
I did not mean to pull the thread away from its common goal, Boom or Bust.
But it has to be said a place like Dubai, which is eating up a lot of resources from around the world, has to be adding something to the global economy.
All the steel and most of the materials are imported from around the world. Steel prices have increased.
But is the places where these materials are coming from start to feel a pinch it will be disaster for Dubai and the stupid people who have invested here.

That being said for a reduction or halt of the projects worldwide there needs to be a global depression, which I believe is starting.

London: house prices went through the roof, people borrowed like mad as interest rates were low. Now there fixed interest rate terms are coming to an end, there mortgages and loans repayments are much higher now. The wages are still the same though !

America: housing market on the brink of collapse, this is one of the main reasons why we are starting to feel shakes around the world.

Wars around the world (right or wrong), governments are spending billions on these.
Cost is 1 billion per day + - this has to be hurting someone’s economy ?

I do think there will be a shift the question is when. – back to the thread !!
I have also been looking at this, as I am one of the lucky ones who have good money invested in the housing market back in the U.K. I am getting ready to sell my property. When: early next year is when I think there will be a slow decline in pricing. This will be masked by Christmas which everyone stretches themselves on the credit cards, it’s not till March when they are trying to pay it back and go further into debt.
Banks around the world are increasing interest rates this affects us all and the project we work on.

Nieman Naas: I agree with what you say, but one thing I do not agree on is Dubai is at risk from terrorists. why it is the largest washing machine in the world, most of the worlds dirty money comes through Dubai / UAE. If a terrorist wanted to make a name for himself then this would be the place to do it, why don’t they… Dubai launders the money for them.
America have also a lot of money invested in this country as do many others, there is also a lot of Russian mobsters money here. Even the Bin Larden family has offices and work in Dubai (not associated with there famous family member). Dubai says no American vessels will dock here but why do I keep bumping into solders that are on R&R from Iraq. Also with Iran on the scene, many of these people are buying large amounts of property here in case of any war in Iran.
I do not believe that anyone would bomb this place as I think they are getting fringe benefits from not doing so !!! If someone did bomb Dubai or UAE the flood of non-nationals leaving in a hurry would mean certain collapse of the country and any building work going on. For those who stayed it would mean big money to be earned !!!
I suppose watch this space in the Boom or Bust tell, tell signs !!!

This is not place to discuss some COUNTRY’s economy.

The thread is all about Constructin boom, How long?

Even if UAE survives say from TOURISM, construction boom will not last for too long, say by 2017, most of the ambititous projects will be over and by that time, they wud like to develop all these areas as TOURISTS spot.

and NOT d way, gerome has said with workers staring or taking photos of ur girlfriend/wife/baby.

If the building has been designed specifically for specific group of people, then ultimately it will be used for that group only. Most of the projects like DUBAI LAND, WATERFRONT, all fancy PALM’s will b over by that time.

So, CONSTRUCTION BOOM, how long? Next 10-12 years or so....

Cheers,

Yes, but Dubai has little oil and the money going in to these projects is borrowed. If you dont pay you get forclosure. We despite what people may say are entering the recession cycle, this is on the bqack of record world borrowings. Things will go down and construction will always be the first to be cut.

Dubai takes about 10 times the energy per person compared with the US (to survive), which we all know is hardly the efficiency benchmark. Everything is manufactured from water to landscapes. The cost base is too high to sustain economic growth.

And as we all know its bloody hot, so whats the point in living there?

Ask yourself this question would you buy a flat in Dubai, assuming there was no barriers to doing so.

I agree that all oil producers are riding a wave of cash, their GDPs have doubled and oil may well go higher.

However oil prices are fickle and directly related to demand, most of which at the moment is coming from China as it industrilises. This industrialisation is based on the West demands for products. If that stops, so demand for oil from China recedes and their are less buyers chasing more oil.

Answer the price goes down and the projects stop. Take the 80s as the example and you will see what can happen to single product economies.

The main topic is Building boom, reading the threads below mine refers to a bust / recession or even worse depression.
My point on Dubai was not meant to slag this country off, although I could if given the chance !!
It was about what the hell are they doing here. They are building too much, way too fast in remote places. The basic are not even set up here like good public transport ect.
They have this stupid idea if they build right next too a war torn country and another who is treading on thin ice, everyone will flock here as it has no crime and it is cheap.
Fact is there is a lot of crime (mainly petty and drugs related) and it is not cheap.
They are bringing over people from countries to build Dubai, who are working on so little wages it is modern day slave labor.
Even Chinese convicts are now over here helping.
The workers are by the thousand and they are not skilled, they learn on the job.
People say it’s a life style chance, but this is media hype.
I was using Dubai as an example not a point of topic. Dubai is media hype to get people here & make the country even more richer than the sheiks already are !

I do think with the state of affairs around the world at the moment and the stock market conditions there will be a large Lull coming soon.
England is on a boom due to Olympics and other government projects. There are other Booms going on with the world cup and alike.
But if America’s stock market keeps sending out shocks around the world all countries no matter where would feel the pinch.
Which will mean projects being cancelled and less need for planners.

and too many people from "Gods Own Country" ....

Hi Gerome,

beautifully said and written,

but forgot to write about the so called greenary here!!

LANDSCAPING is done in DUABI with only grass and other small bushes. Even if u have to drive down somewhere u can only see asphalted road, Buildings and SAND & SAND & SAND & SAND only.

just drive down along the Emirates Road (Dubai Land), u will go MAD. U will surely remember those rainy days in ur hometown.

One major factor I can see in Dubai is there is nothing here !! Nothing is finished !!
All we have is wild wadi, snow dome, shopping malls, sand and dust.
To go to the beach you either go to the public beach where the workers stare at your wife and baby and take pictures or pay to visit one of the hotels. There are no fish in the sea unless you go over to the Indian Ocean side as they have all been sucked up, the traffic is mad. Dubai is one great idea, but nothing is finished to say if it will be a success.
Also you have the skyscraper theory, 2 years after the worlds largest skyscraper has been built the country goes bust !!
I agree that Dubai is one of the countries, which are spending big. But if you have ever been here there is nothing to do. If I did not work here under a 2-year contract I would not be here.
Rent for apartments is high, living costs are not that much different from the U.K. (Mortgage and council tax together)
You don’t pay tax on your earnings but it not a hey day for us British abroad, as there is such good money being offered in the U.K. at the moment. (I left to increase my knowledge in claims)
People in Dubai are finding it very hard to afford to live due to the expense of it all.
Companies are not offering good wages, as margins on projects are tight, the people they hire are not that good as they are not paid great wages.
With the way the economy is going in general around the world Dubai, in my opinion will be heading for the biggest fall known to date.
Many apartments are coming on line (fecking sh!t loads), which will be empty as they are asking too much for them in rent or purchase them.
The ideas they have are GREAT, but how many people do they expect to come out here, most devolvements are HUGE the size of a small town. If you are on the Dubai beach and turn to face in land all you can see are high rise towers, it looks like a council estate from back home !!!
Shopping alone will not decide where you go on holiday and there are cheaper places to go and better things to see.
If all the countries around the world are suffering from a recession, who could afford the living out here.
Dubai for me is one big disappointment, but I have learnt a lot and met some good people so not all bad.
Once 2010 comes !!!! There should be more to see with Dubai world, but who want to go out in 40 degrees heat on fun fair rides !!!
The Metro system will be slow and congested; there is no postman, the roads are full and dangerous, hookers drive you mad when out of a night…... Come to Dubai life is Sh!t !!!!

Planning of a project and the construction of it is arelatively small part in the development process. Its greatly affected by viability. Who for example will continue to invest in Dubai and for what reasons?

What if there is a conflict in the middle east, will foreign investors continue to invest. Will an increase in indiginous financial markets in the middle east continue to allow funds to be traded in Dubai that could be traded in the home country. Will oil continue to be traded at $70 a barrel.

Is the world about to go into recession or even worse depression.

All these factors lead to a downturn in construction. Look at the examples such as Thailand for what happens to construction when an econoimy falters. It stops, not slowly but the next day, and its a mess, bonds get pulled, plant gets taken off site, labour is sent home and lots of people lose lots of money. Except the banks.

We are in the most vunerable industry in any economy, so will it last I doubt it, the cycl;e would indicate the world is moving towards recession or worse in the next year. The only places that may be protected are those that have need to build and the ware with all to do it. Old Soviet republics are a good case, maybe China, maybe some countries in South America.