Probabilistic Chain Analysis (PCA) — A Framework for Running Projects in a Probabilistic World
Introduction
I want to share a methodology I have spent the last eight months developing, validating, and writing up — and I would genuinely value the technical scrutiny of this community before I take it further into academic submission.
The problem it addresses is one I suspect everyone here has lived:
A static risk register sums independent expected values. It treats fifteen risks as fifteen separate coin flips. It produces a number. The Project Director nods at the number. The project begins.
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