I have an updated schedule,
3. some activites are completed.
2. some have started but not completed
3. some not yet started.
I want to run a schedule risk analysis to no my probabilistic completion date. the schedule is not resource loaded.
whats the best approach to this
Hi Ibrahim,
It is importnat which schedudling tool you are going to use. Spider Project would able to produce probability of success (schedule, cost or both) but you would need to have risk data in your schedule.
Risk data could be presented a number of ways. Two the most traditional:
1. Risk to activity durations;
2. Risk event.
In P6 and MSP you would need to use external plugins but they only support Monter Carlo analsyis.
Please be reminded that each iteration must be resource-leveled if some resource(s) is (are) limited. In real life most schedules are resource constrained. Closing your eyes to the issue of resource usage and availability is not a good idea.
Project Schedule Risk Analysis Simplified
Page 8 - If several activities using the same resource are potentially scheduled at the same time, they may require more of that resource than is available. Resource leveling in CPM pushes one or another resource-using activity out in time so that a resource’s usage does not exceed its availability in any time period. Because each solution in a risk analysis must at least be feasible, it should not violate any resource limitations that exist. Each iteration must be resource-leveled if some resource(s) is (are) limited.
Schedule Risk Analysis only ever uses remaining durations - there is no risk on completed tasks.
Couple of websites that contain a lot of good info:
https://www.riskinteg.com/ and http://www.projectrisk.com/