Hello,
Please does anyone have a template or procedure on how to perform a schedule risk assessment wihout Monte Carlo and other specialty tools.
Rgds
R
From: http://eight2late.wordpress.com/2009/09/11/an-introduction-to-monte-carlo-simulation-of-project-tasks/
- Another point worth mentioning is that simulations can be done at a level higher than that of an individual task. In their brilliant book – Waltzing With Bears: Managing Risk on Software Projects - De Marco and Lister demonstrate the use of Monte Carlo methods to simulate various aspects of project – velocity, time, cost etc. – at the project level (as opposed to the task level). I believe it is better to perform simulations at the lowest possible level (although it is a lot more work)
From: http://russarchibald.com/SuccessProbSPDM.pdf
- Risk Simulation and Assessment in SDPM: Risk assessment can be accomplished in the SDPM approach using either Monte Carlo methods (many repetitions using random number generators) or using range estimates, usually three: optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic. The choice of which method to use in a spe ific situation depends on several factors, as presented in Table 2.
- To get the distribution you can use OpenPERT Excel add-in. You will have to save the add-in file on a secure folder, I suggest under programs folder and then activate it to use it.
http://code.google.com/p/openpert/
- I agree it is better to perform simulations at the lowest possible level and therefore Monte Carlo, except when using Monte Carlo on a huge portfolio of jobs. Spider has some functionality added to it that makes it easier to use 3 scenarios method than if using other software, for example revised probability estimates after every update would require 3 revised scenario schedules but Spider synchronizes the 3 schedules updates.
- Good Luck.
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