Is PERT technique Probabilistic or deterministic?
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David,
Use the Project Management Body of Knowledge as a primary source of information for your dissertation.
The two main ones are:
APM Body of Knowledge
PMI Body of Knowledge
Each have sections on Risk Management which you can use as a reference.Try governemnt website also, you will definately find something about project risk analysis/management.
David
The PERT calculation takes minimum(A), most likely(B) and maximum(C) durations, calculates a working duration as (A+4B+C)/6 and doing a deterministic calculation. Then the single critical path is calculated a a rang one the end dates determined from the variances of the activities making up that single path. It is a simplistic approach dating from days when risk analyses calculation were computer-intensive and therefore expensive. It is largely unnecessary now given efficient and affordable risk analysis packages - e.g. Pertmaster www.pertmaster.com and www.primaver.com.
Hope that helps
Phil