No simple answer I’m afraid. There has to be some subjectivity. I usually start by running with correlation at 100% and at 0% (easy to do in pertmaster with a simple macro) - this gives an appreciation of the problem, whether it’s worth investment of time or not. Then I correlate similar sets of tasks (engineering, procurement etc), then I correlate across project for global factors (PM is the biggest driver).
Last (and most important) I see whether the results makes sense, then I show it to the stakeholders to ensure it is believable.
Member for
24 years 8 months
Member for24 years9 months
Submitted by Vladimir Liberzon on Tue, 2004-11-09 06:07
activities that use the same resources have correlated durations. In our software Spider Project duration is calculated by dividing activity volume by resource productivity. Duration uncertainty is usually defined by resource productivity uncertainty.
This correlation is not single but most obvious.
Using Monte Carlo simulation you shall choose what to simulate though it will not work properly for large projects in any case.
Member for
20 years 11 monthsRE: Duration Correlation of activities in a Risk S
Colin
No simple answer I’m afraid. There has to be some subjectivity. I usually start by running with correlation at 100% and at 0% (easy to do in pertmaster with a simple macro) - this gives an appreciation of the problem, whether it’s worth investment of time or not. Then I correlate similar sets of tasks (engineering, procurement etc), then I correlate across project for global factors (PM is the biggest driver).
Last (and most important) I see whether the results makes sense, then I show it to the stakeholders to ensure it is believable.
Member for
24 years 8 monthsRE: Duration Correlation of activities in a Risk S
Colin,
activities that use the same resources have correlated durations. In our software Spider Project duration is calculated by dividing activity volume by resource productivity. Duration uncertainty is usually defined by resource productivity uncertainty.
This correlation is not single but most obvious.
Using Monte Carlo simulation you shall choose what to simulate though it will not work properly for large projects in any case.
Vladimir