EXCEL as Risk Analysis Software

Hey, this seems to be an interesting collaboration :D.

Just for you know, now I am making this thing in MS Excel and MS Project during my spare time. Any suggestion is welcome :) I need to learn more about this.

Thank you for your reply, and I will search for some good topic documents in this topic. In addition, I can help you in developing this project, as I am also interested in this branch of science. On the other hand, I can Simulate different types of probability distribution that represent the most optimistic and the most pessimistic as well.

I will be ready.

I choose normal distribution in my example just for the sake of simplicity.

BTW, i am quite interested in what you said "collect the different types of risks, sort them and select a suitable risk weight, allocate the to each activity, and get the final degree of risk assigned to each activity." However, to be honest, this is something beyond my current knowledge. I will try to time to study your suggestion. Do you have any book you want to recommend me about the topic?

DEAR Chachrist Srisuwanrat,

I didn’t mean which distribution you select, I do mean that why you select normal distribution, that was the first question.

And how can I calculate the standard deviation’s value?

is it just collect some data and get the equation by curve fitting? I think it will be more efficient if you collect the different types of risks, sort them and select a suitable risk weight, allocate the to each activity, and get the final degree of risk assigned to each activity. So i will be more realiable, but more complicated. isn’t it?

you can use any distribution you want as long as you have the function in Excel (either built-in or from other commercial software such as @Risk by Palisade decistion tool). There are some built-in distributions in Excel:normal, gamma, exponential, and hypergeometric.



The example on my webpage is just to show how to do risk analysis using simulation (numerical approach) in Excel.

About standard deviation (also the same for distribution, it depends on manay factors such as what type of activity, is it lobor or machine intensive, site condition, weather. In order to select a proper distribution and SD, I suggest you to collect some real data that is considered a good representation for your project(in term of the mentioned factors above) and then use some fit curve distribution software such as StatFit in ProModel, or ...other software to get distribution and its parameters.

Well, or you can try to find information from publication on the web.

Or, hmm just use normal distribution with mean from RSMeans Building Construction Cost Data and use SD of 10%, 20%, ... of the mean, just to get the picture of risk.

chachrist,



THAT’S GOOD WORK, BUT WHY DID YOU CHOOSE ONLY NORMAL DISTRIBUTION?

AND HOW DID YOU CALCULATE THE VALUE OF STANDARD DEVIATION?

BEST REGARDS

This sounds and looks good. Click send when you have attached a copy to: logusman@yahoo.com

Hi guy,

I am madly interested so put me in copy,

juliusabuda@yahoo.com



Rgds

julius

Dear my friend

You should be able to find this information documents related to productivity on the web.



Or you can do some experiment by yourself. Do the job for 10 times then get average and SD value. :)



Or ...well...if there is any book about construction productivity in India, which usually provides mean value, you can use the mean value and try set SD = 10%, 20%, and 30% of the mean value. Heheheee this sound super fun to me.

chachrist,



That’s good work on ur website.



but how do you decide upon the standard deviation for each activity duration. Also how would you decide on the pessimistic, most likely or optimistic times. MY QUESTION IS RELATED TO LABOUR INTENSIVE CONSTRUCTION ONLY.

send me a copy at narnor2002@yahoo.com pls.

excellent stuff.....thank you guys for providing such valuable inputs for making a planners life easy......



cheers

very interesting staff, would be interested to see it being developed and even assist with development and testing,



well done



a.sphicas@cytanet.com.cy

Dear Chachrist

A great thanks for your link and i am also intrested even cost little more than suppose.

Keep up with high ambitious

Regards

Tahir

it’s very interesting



if it’s possible, please forward it to me



semsemhiggy1@yahoo.com

Guys I have a question.

What if I make an excel application for the risk analysis as shown in my website (with more feather such as SS and FF relationships and optimizing cost), how much money I could sell it? I just wonder. Anyone would buy is for $50 ??



http://www.chachris.com/index_files/excel.htm

please goto

http://www.chachris.com/index_files/excel.htm

or

http://chachrist.googlepages.com/RiskAnalysis.pdf



I wish I have time to show you guys more. Anyway, this should give you an idea how to do this in EXCEL.



By the way, please check PERTMASTER and @RISK software. These two companies have add-on application for EXCEL, MS PROJECT,and P3 sebjected to RISK ANALYSIS

Chochrist,



If not too much trouble, I too would be interested.



If possible, forward to abandc@alltel.net

yes absolutely, I’m interested. Could u forward to me aizamcapri@gmail.com or maz.aizam@simedarby.com...

yes absolutely, I’m interested. Could u forward to me aizamcapri@gmail.com or maz.aizam@simedarby.com...

Dear guys

I uses Excel to do risk analysis based on activity duration. My Excel file shows the probability of project completion and also criticality level for each activity (based on time). Let’s me know if anyone is interested, i think i can make an easy version to show you guys.

thanks Nigel.

a good article.

IMO using excel for schedule risk analysis is not so easy.

MSP with VBA is better, at least MSP can do CPM calculation.

This is one way from good old Bill Gates. Takes a bit of reading through and working out but it can create a sort of Monte Carlo type risk spreadsheet.



http://office.microsoft.com/en-us/assistance/HA011118931033.aspx



Nige

Yes ... U can.



I use Excel working together with MS Project, analyzing critical activities, registering risks, level risks, recovery plans, immediatly actions, responsbles etc.



Regards.

I think it is. But it will be a lot of work. It might be cheaper to just buy the software...



Actually a nice challenge to figure out how... but I don’t really have time for that now... very very maybe later...