multiple activities affected by a single risk

Member for

21 years 8 months

Definitively resource availability might not be deterministic, this is an excellent question.

If using Spider Project I would suggest using the 3 scenarios approach to model different resource availability profiles [optimistic, pessimistic and probable] using Time or Activity resource production. 

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This method does not have many of the limitations Monte Carlo models do have and can be implemented using your CPM software without the need for specialized Risk software.

http://www.spiderproject.com/images/img/pdf/Methods%20and%20Tools%20of%20Success%20Driven%20Project%20Management.pdf

The following SPERT Excel Templates might help you get the distribution curves, with little modification you can get the cumulative % distributions.  Statistical PERT Normal Edition uses ratio scale multipliers to modify the standard deviation of a normal curve. This lets Statistical PERT work with any bell-shaped uncertainty that can be estimated using a 3-point estimate for minimum, maximum and most likely outcomes.

https://www.statisticalpert.com/download-free-templates/#duration

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Member for

19 years 10 months

Hi Mark - Welcome to Planning Planet

There are many types of risk that affect multiple tasks - weather is typicle.

If there is likely to be a shortgae of labour then put a cap on the number expected to be deployed and the end date will extend accordingly.

Best regards

Mike Testro