The results of a risk analysis of a simple set of activities in series will tend towards a normal distribution as you state. BUT the tendency is lessened if the distributions are correlated together (depending on the degree of correlation), also depends on the shape of the network.
For a simple set of activities in parallel, you will probably get a left skewed distribution due to nodal/merger bias.
A real netwoek, of course, is more complex with a mix of parallel, series activities and some correlation so the effect is muted.
Member for
20 years 11 monthsRE: CPA and ’normal’ disrtribution
David
The results of a risk analysis of a simple set of activities in series will tend towards a normal distribution as you state. BUT the tendency is lessened if the distributions are correlated together (depending on the degree of correlation), also depends on the shape of the network.
For a simple set of activities in parallel, you will probably get a left skewed distribution due to nodal/merger bias.
A real netwoek, of course, is more complex with a mix of parallel, series activities and some correlation so the effect is muted.