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Probality of project being completed on time

23 replies [Last post]
Thu, 2006-06-29 00:03
Ahmad Khaierul Ab...
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Im a new member/green and this is my first post.

Anyone planner here got experiance in calculate probality of project being completed on time by using beta distribution method for their project.

My question is :

1. Did this method give us the accurate probality?

2. HOw to predict optimistic duration, most likely duration and pessismistic duration?

Thank U.



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Replies

Fri, 2006-07-14 11:36
#1
Philip Jonker
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Hi Clive,

My hobby is cooking, and most people I have cooked for think my food is very good so I understand your analogy. As a matter of interest, I have two sons, one is a sous chef, and the other one a planner. I have a problem deciding which is the clever one:-)

I worked a project, int the Kalahari Desert in Botswana, where we exceded the 3000 m3 a week mark, it required 4 batch plants, two chillers, a dedicated fleet of truck for getting material to the batching plants (running 24 hours a day), a dedicated quarry and crusher ( 20 km away from the site), a fleet of concrete mixing trucks, a a few other things. What people do not realise is the backup for a this, workshops, maintenace crews,, etc. They ignore these facts, and merrily plan their way through things.

And when you can’t find enough electricians or diesel mechanics, they wonder why the project is falling behind.

Regards

Philip
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Thu, 2006-07-13 19:38
#2
Clive Randall
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Philip
I hear what you say, and I was generalising about getting the drawings out.
You are right when you say real planners create a plan from experience when there are no drawings and just a concept. However there are very few out there in my experience who can really do this and that number appears to be diminishing as the old ones retire.
Oh dear how many times have I said that planning requires people to think outside the box, it goes back to what does your gut tell you. That gut can only be relied upon if you have partaken of many different meals and understand how they have been cooked, what worked and what didnt.
Philip when I read these posts I get very frustrated at the time spent on the detail about how this works and what a WBS is and all that garbage.
I had a project where the planner produced a massive programme. The project required about 3000 m3 of concrete per week to be placed. So question 1
Where is the concrete coming from,
Answer: On site batcher
Question: Where is that coming from,
Answer: Dont know.
Question: How long will it take to procure it,
Answer: Dont know ,
Question: So why are we placing concrete after 2 weeks from award.
Answer: Cos the contract says we have to.
Question: Is there an alternative,
Answer: I dont think so.
Question: Ok forget the batcher wheres the aggregate coming from,
Answer: Dont know the subbie says garbage follows.
Question: So we have to set up our own quarry how long will that take
Answer: Dont know.
This is just a small example of planners getting the programme right on paper and forgetting the basics, or as I call them the physical constraints.
Can I but scream at the top of my voice dont mess about with the detail until you have solved the fundamentals, but screaming goes unheard often because the planner cannot understand the language I am using.
Keep plugging away philip.
Kind regards
Clive
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Thu, 2006-07-13 12:29
#3
Philip Jonker
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Hi clive,

As an aside, the old guy and I was wearing identical watches, except his was gold and and mine stainless. Also I am being unfair as he was about five years older than me. I spent twenty years working as an engineer and the last 17 in planning.
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Thu, 2006-07-13 12:24
#4
Philip Jonker
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Hi Clive,

I am one hundred percent in agreement with you. the problem is that planners need the right experience and tutoring. You are quite right, get the drawings out, and then when you understand the job, structure your project planning. The pitfall is that all projects do not always start of with drawings available, and you then have to sit with the conceptual designers to find out what is in their minds, you then have to structure, keeping in mind the vagueness of the information at hand. The way to do this, and this is what experience is, is to build a structure flexible and robust enough to handle changes, but will survive all.

On your point of using all the team involved, AKA the Thames gates, I had a simular problem a couple of years back, nobody studied the drawings correctly and made some stupid assumptions. I warned them, and they proceded in an incorrect manner and ignored my advice, till some old engineer got hold of some minutes, flew to site, questioned me at length, and realised what I was telling him. We cut 3 months of the program. The draughtsman with the spoon was lucky enough to have people who could grasp his concept.

Regards

Philip
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Wed, 2006-07-12 19:33
#5
Clive Randall
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Philip
I did misread your post
However my concern lays with what as planners we think we are supposed to do.
For me its getting the message across. We I feel should open the drawings and understand the project. Identify the ways to undertake the work and then get it down on paper. We should have the time to do this when the site doers are too busy. Then we explain it to them in sound bites simple elements identifying the problems and the constraints and our method of resolving them. Maybe if we do this well they will have a full appreciation of the project and just maybe they will come up with an alternative idea. Its possible we have thought of it and already discounted it for x y and z reasons so explain why its a non starter however it maybe we did not consider it. Despite the posts I see where planners appear to feel that they are right because the computer says so often in my experience the good ideas come from those who have not been invoved in the process and are looking with fresh eyes. A point to amplify this. Some years ago when the Thames barrier was at the design stage the engineers were wresterling with the problem of the gates. They wanted an efficient solution which required littkle energy to move the gates. Sitting beside this group was draughtsmean stirring his tea. Voila he said or maybe why dont you do this. The gates were shaped like a spoon and as they say the rest is history.
I say to my planners remember what it was like when you first unrolled the drawings. Walk the audience through this decision making process, for they are often starting from the same point as you. Our function is to bring the project to life and solve the issues and explain what we have done so others can follow. Too often I see planners getting into WBS OBS and other BS long before it is required and focussing on the programme rather than looking at the big picture. For me the programme is worthless if it is not backed up with methods and good old drawings of what you want to do. To be a really good planner you must have an understanding of the process. If you are a good mechanic you have to know what the bits do and then why they are not doing what they should,then and only then do you reach for the spanners. Should be the same with planning the software is just a tool however I have seen and read that often planners believe that being able to use a piece of software (spanner ) makes them a planner. It does not will not and cannot they are just grease monkeys and will never make it onto the formula one grid of planning
Well thats what I feel anyway
Clive
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Mon, 2006-07-10 21:46
#6
Clive Randall
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Dear Philip
Thanks for your comment
I am not sure I would agree with your comment that all is possible
A scenario I have seen often that despite shift working additional resources etc etc the programme is driven by natural constraints. For example the weather or curing time. As a scenario when post tensioning the concrete requires a certain strength before the activity can be undertaken. This strength gain can be accelerated to a point but will often drive the programme and can therefore lead to non fullfillment of an accelerated programme.
However on balance I fully concure with your comments, planners must mix in the real world not cyber world because it is there that our efforts will be seen. A perfect programme is worthless if its guts are not spilled out and explained to those physically managing the work. Often the love of computers stiffles the ability to communicate. In my travels I have worked in countries where I could not communicate with people in language and was forced to mime ideas and explain programmes with drawings. This strips away issues with programmes ind is highly invigorating
Kind regards
Clive
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Mon, 2006-07-10 19:31
#7
Norzul Ibrahim
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Hi Phillip,

TQ for the constructive comments. Anyway what’s the problem with yu? Seems to be upset.

Thanks

NORZUL
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Mon, 2006-07-10 13:15
#8
Philip Jonker
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Hi Norzul,

I have a serious problem with risk assessment programmes like Pertmaster and Montecarlo, in that they have no intelligence to review programs and only use basic intelligence to review schedules, this is the so-called clever planners way out. I was involved with a project last year, where pertmaster kept on giving high risk scenarios on my project, and did not reflect the same on other projects, common to the group of projects. However my project finished early and all the others late. This was not the first and the last time, so what does it tell you, that these so called risk programs hve major flaws. They are written by progrmmers, who make certain assumptions about logic, and other parameters, but have no clue about true planning. I wwould like to answer your numbered assesments one by one, as per your numbers:

1: The obvious answer to this is that top management is supposed to have enough experience to make these decisions, The second answer is that you use the expertise in the organisation, to prepare a sufficiently detailed program that top management can believe what they are saying, and demonstrate it in a succinct manner.
2: Obviously 99% of the people are aware of what they are letting themselves in for, so I reject your statement out of hand.
3: That is a bad statement, you obviosly select people with the right experience, or otherwise the thing will fold.
4: the higher the ratio between what????????????????? What is the criteria for a project?????????????? Answer the question, freelance, staf, contractors??????????????/ Never make unqualified statements like this, rather take a leisuirly stroll through an unmapped minefield.
5:PLAIN STUPIDITY.
6:DITTO
7:DITTO
8:DITTO
9:DITTO
10:DITTO
11:DITTO
12:DITTO

Are you a planner or a politician, we have a job to do, and make it as simplistic for other people to do their jobs as possible, why all the negative thoughts, and not something positive, galas

Regards

Philip
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Mon, 2006-07-10 12:36
#9
Philip Jonker
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Hi Vlad,

As per usual I tend to agree with you, people on projects are probably the key to success, the personalities are critical, there is often clashes, however, this is run of the mill stuff, and there is no room for vendetas and the like, it is important clashes are resolved and the team remains effective. Your comment on rik assessment is valid.

Regards

Philip
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Mon, 2006-07-10 12:26
#10
Philip Jonker
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Hi Clive,

The point is nothing is impossible, but you have to think it thri\ough thoroughly, as there is always an answer, the cost might be prohibitive, but there is also a mass of constraint, like access, space, material and resource availability, etc. The point is to identify problems, define the problems, and solutions will follow. Always make sure you monitor your float carefully in conjunction with S-curves, as this is your best tools to spot spot problem ares well in advance. Another thing that is is very important, is to interact with the people who have to perform the tasks, and make sure they buy in beforehand. There is so many factors involved, and every project is unique in the problems that crop up, that this is what makes planning probably one of the most interesting fields/disciplines in the world.

Regards

Philip
ps: I am answering the replies individually to keep things in context
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Tue, 2006-07-11 12:42
#11
Philip Jonker
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Hi Guys,

Norzul,

I am not upset, just my normal self, pointing out the pitfalls in that people believe in the infalibility of computors, and make judgements based on that. As I explained you about the previous project in my posting. What I am trying to say is use your own judgement and experience, and if you are lacking in certain areas, find a mentor with the necessary experience, this could be in the form of of a foreman, supervisor, etc. Good people are always around. Hope this solves some of your problems, and do not hesitate asking if you need some advice, good luck.

Clive,

I agree with you wholeheartedly, maybe you misread something I said, but your example of curing is a good one. Just to expand on it a example: We built a runway in the Kalahari desert, the problems weres massive, with low humidity, wind conditions and temperature. We had to plan around these problems. Sometimes we could only start casting concrete at 23H00 and work till maximum 05H00. We had to plan around these uncertainties. In the Middle East we had the problem of heat, up to fifty degrees celsius, fourty heat exhaustion cases a week, anothe example, critical resources out of action. The point is you have to define the problems and work out solutions, and every project if planned well, with available design information, materials, human resources and correct management has a very good chance of being completed within time. It is all in the mind, and computors are just tools for refling this

Regards

Philip
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Sat, 2006-07-08 11:33
#12
Vladimir Liberzon
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There are many factors that define project success and many risks that shall be considered. Risk simulation can show what is going on with the success probability - is it increasing or going down during project execution. It is not easy to estimate these trends manually. In the experienced hands this tool is very useful.
There is a problem with Monte Carlo simulation but we discuss approaches, not tools.
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Sat, 2006-07-08 10:55
#13
Norzul Ibrahim
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We’ve used Pertmaster to cary out monte carlo analysis for the project schedule. I also tried the free trial version of Pertmaster (can download from internet, limited to 26 activities only). Yes, the software is powerfull and very user friendly and will calculate the probability of project being completed on time. But again, as any other software in the market it depends on the inputs and how we establish the linkage between the activities for the project....garbage in garbage out...

To me, based on my experiences the probability of project being completed on time depends on several inter-related factors. The more complex the project the more comlex the factors will be.
FACTORS CONTRIBUTING TO PROJECT DELAY
1) The establishment of the initial project duration or schedule maybe unrealistic but no one dares to challenge that becoz it has been decided by the very top management.

2) Unsuitable contracting strategy. Different projects and situations may require different contracting strategies. It can be EPCC lump sum turnkey project, reimbursable projects, alliance concept project, novation projects, EPCC + PMC type projects, etc.

3) The experience level of the project team personnel inlcuding the contractors, clients, and consultants. The lower the experience the more risk of not completed on time

4) The ratio between the freelance staff and permanent staff for the key personnel in the project. The higher the ratio the more the risk of not completed on time

5) Lack of interfacing and coordination among disciplines (civil&structure, piping, mechanical, electrical, instrument, process) may further contribute to the project not being completed on time.

6) Under budgetted project

7) Inexperience or lack of experience contractor (as a company) in executing the project.

8) Unclear scope of work or project specifications

9) Change requirements introduced by the clients or shareholders e.g. change location of facilities

10) Engineering, procurement, construction and commissioning activities not properly synchronize causing major interfacing problem.

11) Late approval from local authorities

12) etc, etc, etc...
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Sat, 2006-07-08 08:11
#14
Vladimir Liberzon
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What is strange in the recent postings - people compared calculations and quality of the project team as if they are independent.
Of course calculations shall be made basing on the team estimates and qualification. In this case they may be very useful. And especially because they will show trends in project performance.
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Sat, 2006-07-08 07:44
#15
Oscar Wilde
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In my experience the probability of a project being finished on time revolves around several factors.
Who cast the original contract period or was it just imagined
What standard is the design team
What is the quality of the contractor
If any of these provides a negative response all the monte carlos or monty pythons in the world aint going to bring it home on time.
Oscar
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Thu, 2006-07-06 19:36
#16
Clive Randall
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Philip spot on mate
Probability of a project finishing on time is directly related to the staff who are working on it.
When you first cast a programme ask yourself is it realistic.
Dont look at the contract period until you are satisfied that your logic and durations are correct. Add in inclement weather holidays strikes etc then schedule. If you come out with a 1000 day duration and the contract period is 600 you have a project that wont finish on time whatever you do. At this point throw away the programme and reach for the paper cos you may be looking for a new job. Reason if you tell the PM it cant be done he will say just fudge it and 6 months down the road your a**se will be on the line.

However if the contract period is say 850 days it is likely that by accelerating key activities by adding additional plant and labour you may get a programme that works. At this point you should bang the drum very loud and make people very aware of what they have to do on these key activities. Then you monitor the key activities and if its not happening shout and scream loud and long. Do not just reschedule the programme to ensure completion when you fall behind look again at your driving activities and again see whether it is feasible to add additional resources or equipment if its not well tell people the news.

Clive
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Tue, 2006-07-04 13:36
#17
Philip Jonker
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Hi Henk,

Lazy does not imply not thinkng, it implies the opposite
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Tue, 2006-07-04 13:14
#18
Philip Jonker
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Henk,

As a planner your first mission is to be lazy, but, lazy people find the simplest and easiest ways to do things.
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Tue, 2006-07-04 13:01
#19
Henk van der Heide
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Good evening Philip (goeie avond)

I’ll try pertmaster myself i’ve got a trial.
But to be honest. Most guys who are very lazy come up with the best ideas :-)

After i’ve tried pertmaster i’ll commend on it.
But you’re right once you build a good network you should be able to predict the possibility of the end date yourself. Thats also how i do it now

Kind Regards

Henk
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Tue, 2006-07-04 12:23
#20
Philip Jonker
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Goeie naand Henk,

The problems that I have encountered with pertmaster is that is is designed to rigidly, and although it will assist you in seeing possible problems,it cannot think. It relies too much on spotting obvious problems, such as constraints and FF dutions etc, that it does not know the thinking behind the schedule. That is why we need experienced human planners who can think logically. Pertmaster is a shortcut for lazy client planners.

Regards

Philip
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Mon, 2006-07-03 15:08
#21
Henk van der Heide
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Maybe you could use Pertmaster.
it calculates the risk and the possibility to be completed at some time.
I never used it myself but i’ve been told it uses the montecarlo system for duration calculation.
Never the les you need a (good) networkplanning to have a reliabel outcome.

www.pertmaster.com

Kind regards

Henk
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Mon, 2006-07-03 13:24
#22
Philip Jonker
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Hi Vlad/ahmad,

The software becomes immaterial as well as Beta distributions, it becomes a problem of the planners understanding their job and kicking ass. There is no better alternative for projects, than a well qualified planner walking around site, and identifying problems. Computor soft does not do this, and nor does unqualified people.
Beta Distribution, does not even relate nor function.


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Thu, 2006-06-29 14:31
#23
Vladimir Liberzon
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Ahmad,
please look at http://www.spiderproject.ru/library/mps.ppt
We use this approach but the probability distribution of project results shall be carefully restored taking into consideration the number of activities on the critical path and the total number of project activities.
But even if your estimation was not quite precise it does not matter much if you will manage the project by the trends of probabilities to achieve targets as described in the above mentioned presentation.
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