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Risk analyses

18 replies [Last post]
Sat, 2002-04-06 09:37
Robin Jongen
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When do you use risk analyses on a project?

Which program is the most suitable for risk analyses?

How often do you perform a risk analyses on a project?

Is the rate of risk analyses determined by to length of the project?


Regards,

Robin Jongen
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Replies

Tue, 2004-03-09 09:01
#1
Vladimir Liberzon
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Robin,
please find at http://www.spiderproject.ru/library/SDPM_Canberra2004.pdf my presentation made at the 8th Australian Performance Management Symposium in Canberra last month. This presentation discusses Success Driven Project Management - an approach we use for planning and management of our projects. We think that SDPM is the most powerful PM technique and I’ll be glad to discuss it.
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Tue, 2004-03-09 07:00
#2
Forum Guest
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vladimer,

Yes i understand that risk Analysis is a Must project management technique. But what do you mean by trends of success probailities? Can you explane and or direct me to a website?
Regards,

Robin Jongen
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Sun, 2004-03-07 03:11
#3
Vladimir Liberzon
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We consider risk analysis as a Must project management technique. Trends of success probabilities are the best indicators of the current project status. The software we use is the most popular in Russia but is not known abroad.
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Wed, 2003-10-22 11:03
#4
Mehdi Rashidi Ala...
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Dear Tomas & Sigfredo,
Thanks for your notice.
I think in the planning work , we must used ideal case and compare with real case for risk analysis.

Regards
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Sun, 2003-10-12 23:39
#5
Se de Leon
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by Moderator
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Mon, 2003-10-13 00:37
#6
Mark Lomas
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Reasons for Risk Management ?

In construction and other "hazardous" industries it has always been to systematically reduce safety risk (reducing the "downside" risk).

However, RM is used across many industries to assess both "upside" and "downside" risk. An "upside" risk being an opportunity.

For example, the major financial institutions would use it both strategically and on a deal-by-deal basis. As a business tool, it helps you assess each strategy, project or deal and evaluate whether the associated risks are acceptable. If they are not, a project or deal may be cancelled. At this level , it is vital that an organisation knows its own risk profile. Is it risk averse and how much risk is it willing to take to implement a particular strategy, project or deal ?

See IRM - as a starting point for Risk Management

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Sun, 2003-10-12 23:38
#7
Se de Leon
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by Moderator
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Sun, 2003-10-12 23:22
#8
Se de Leon
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Mehdi,

I will have to agree with you on your points regarding risk assesment which we also do here in our projects using a company risk analysis software(not schedule risk analysis). We do identify any risk involved in the project then quantify the probable amount involved if that risk happens.

As far as I know the reason why risk assesment were being required is because of the ENRON incident. Some Stock Exchanges are now requiring companies to submit regularly risk assesment report.

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Sat, 2003-10-11 16:31
#9
Tomas Rivera
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Mehdi:

You live in an ideal world.

In my world what you explained is rarely done, if at all.


Tomas Rivera
Altek System
Detailed scheduling of high performance
construction projects
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Sat, 2003-10-11 04:59
#10
Mehdi Rashidi Ala...
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Hi,
Before the preperation of any proposal,project coordinators
Conduct risk analysis and assessment.This process identifies what risks exist and assessed the severity of the risk.

This is the essential process of understanding the problem before deciding upon solition.
System and organization project and proposal are developed in order to decrease the risk and to meet the security needs of our clients within the frame of risk analyis and assessment result

Regards
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Thu, 2002-09-26 16:15
#11
Tomas Rivera
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David:

Just for everybody´s information, the Monte Carlo
software package by Primavera Systems uses both
the Monte Carlo simulation technique and the
Latin Hypercube simulation technique.

Tomas Rivera
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Thu, 2002-09-26 07:03
#12
David Bordoli
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I dont mean to be pedantic but I guess we are mainly talking time risk using Monte Carlo simulations?

Beware if you do this... you have to have credible data and be able to interpret the results (I mean everyone wants 95% certainty but at what cost?).

Virtually all project management packages have a strap on risk analysis package (I use Asta Powerproject). For those that dont you can use something like At Risk or Predict! but these tend to be rather heavyweight packages. My only other suggestion is to try and find something that uses Latin Hypercube rather than Monte Carlo.

Regards
David
dbordoli@burofour.co.uk
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Tue, 2002-05-07 04:23
#13
John Alba
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Robin,
Let me Remember that the risk management is a systematic process and the main steps are:
To set the risk management planning
Risk identification
Qualitative risk analysis
Quantitative risk analysis
Risk response plan
Risk monitoring and control
And according to the risk management planning, it includes the timing, that defines how often the risk management process will be performed throughout the project life cycle.
BR John
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Wed, 2002-05-01 10:43
#14
Robin Jongen
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Bush,

On your first answer about software.
How can you customise software? The software like Monte Carlo can’t be customise. Please explain.

On the second answer.
Is there not a difference between indentifing risk and monitoring. Because you indentify risk you monitor the risk. But when en how often do you perform a risk analyses on a project. Is that at the start of a project do you repeat the risk analyses after a month or every quarter?

On the third answer or question you ask?
The rate of risk analyses? If your project last 1 year how many risk analyses do you perform or if the project last 2 years how many risk analyses do you perform?

Regards,

Robin Jongen
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Sat, 2002-04-27 03:15
#15
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Sorry ... Here is more information.


Which program is the most suitable for risk analyses?

There are many software for analysis. Need to customise the tool based on the requirement and depth of analysis you need.
Many companies develope tools to manage the risks.


How often do you perform a risk analyses on a project?
Depending on the risks identified and the effect on the project this needs to be identified and monitored. You could have risks to be monitored weekly, monthly or quarterly.


Is the rate of risk analyses determined by to length of the project?
Like to have more details on this to give clarifications.


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Sat, 2002-04-27 03:07
#16
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Risk analysis is done in managing a project from the initiation phase.

Risks analysis is an essential aspect to be assessed and managed till completion of the project.

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Wed, 2002-04-24 08:06
#17
Daryl Walcroft
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I noticed the other response didn’t detail any software for risk analysis. We develop a large number of risk models for construction projects using a variety of software packages. Most systems use a Monte Carlo simulation to calculate distributions of possible outcomes. I like using @Risk (developed by Palisade Software) or the Monte Carlo addition to Primavera P3.

E-mail me if you want any more details.
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Thu, 2002-04-18 06:07
#18
Mark Lomas
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Risk analysis is a technique, to identify, quantify and manage risk (typically technical, programme, cost) on a project. Whether you use it or not is up to you.

Risks can be within or without your control. Having done a risk idebtification, at least you would understand how much you do not have control of and how much you can mitigate.

The anaysis can be appropriate to the stage of the project. For example, a very high-level analysis may be required before project commitment.

It’s reasonably new as a discipline, but there is a lot of available info. start with the hoempages of the APM and PMI, they may link to specialist RM pages.

Mark
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