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Progress S-Curve

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Mohamed Thabet
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Guys,

When we come to report progress in a S Curve, i believe that neither Cost no Manhours will be enough to give a proper figure of how actually did we progress with the project.

Am working on a EPC porject where the project engineer asked me to comine a weight factor based on Cost & Manhours together, which will be used to report project progress.

Is there any practical formula which can be applied on different catgories to assign activity weight based on the combination of the percentage of cost (value) & manhours compared to the overall effort ?

Am sure that the formula will change from a phase to another (design, procurement, execution ... )

Can i have some ideas here ?

Regards,

Moe

Replies

Alex Wong
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Hi

That’s earned value base on $ and milestone.

I guess lots of contract are base on such calculation for payments terms.

I suggest if you break all the major milestone with a prolong duration. That way you project cash flow can be maintain in a heathly way.

Cheers

Alex
Mohamed Thabet
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That was the decision in my project as well, give the client the Cost Curve, & get the earned Value of work progressed to reflect the invoice claimed.
Brennan Westworth
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"Afterall, we have internally agreed in my company that we will not give the client an S-Curve but the cost to reflect our progress."

in a fixed price lump sum contract that should equal the earned value and they can plot it against whatever target they like :)
Mohamed Thabet
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Well,

The issue of controlling the project internally should be undertaken by the two main indicators for cost & schedule (CPI & SPI) i guess it gives a very clear figure of where your are standing with your project.

But externally with the client, i guess all what he cares about in S-Curve is to see if what he is paying in an invoice is matching with what he is getting from his contractor as of monetary value of works done (when we claim for 10% of the contract value we should show 10% completed on our progress S-Curve), time for the client will be controlled by the Gantt charts.

As Alex said, not all clients are smart enough to know the difference between a cost & weight S-curves.

I had a discussion with our contracts administrator, & we agreed that we will breakdown the contract costs into the activities as per the payment terms (i.e. if you getting 20% of a procurement item when you place a purchase order so it will be reflected on your schedule a 20% of cost with the first step of the activity which you will breakdown into steps using the P5 new feature), we have agreed that procurement steps will be updated using the 0/100 percent, which means if not started its 0 %, when finished its 100% of the step.

Afterall, we have internally agreed in my company that we will not give the client an S-Curve but the cost to reflect our progress.

Moe
Alex Wong
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Gents

I guess there is no standard way of define progress completion...
Different project have different scenario, plus a different client, some are smart, some not, and some pretent to be smart but instead very dump...
My point is, assessing progress is not only for clients, but also if you want to deliver the project successfully you need some form for real indication to the real progress.

Right info will lead to right decision (At least better chance than wrong info)

Good Luck

Alex
Brennan Westworth
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Hi Guys, Interesting discussion.

I believe that % complete is all realtive. As long as everyone looking at the reports knows how it is derived it doesnt matter that procurement kicks in a greater amount of progress than installation.

$$$ should be used for calculation of % complete if this is being used to calculate payments to the subcontractor.

The way I have done it in the past is to use $ for overall and mhrs for construction. I then produce an overall S curve, but then also S curves for each phase (design, procurement, construction).

I think that coming up with airy fairy formulae to weight an activity is dangerous because then you are never quite sure what you are looking at. Try explaining the cost + duration / 2 formulae in plain english to a confused client. I dont think they will get that warm fuzzy feeling.

Cheers,
Brennan
Alex Wong
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Mohamed

If using cost as the only progress indicator can be risky.

THe project I manage I normally use the mix of cost and effort to see the real progress. Especially if you need to look after 20 or more project at one time cost performance can be very deciving. The project manager can hide all the delay which is happening.

I guess thats why the client always want more than just cost (Weighted) Progress is another methodolog to see more about the project
^^

ALex
Mohamed Thabet
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Beer would have solved it all, eh ? :D

Well, i believe the progress curve to be realistic it should be based on cost’s breakdown and as per your contract’s payment terms, some activities you cannot assign weight for it based on manpower (i.e. procurement of overseas items which will take 5 month to be delivered with zero manpower effort)

However Alex, it was good sharing those ideas with you buddy.

Best of luck

Moe
Alex Wong
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Mohamed

I guess the client always try to withhold payment that by under-estiamte real progress. A way to avoid this is having manufacting hours as part of the effort. This usually requires co-ordination from your manufacter.

And if you break down the procurement task a bit more details it will be more difficult for the client avoid early payment. Having said that, it means that as a planner there will be more works involves in breakdown and monitoring activity. (A price to pay to increase positive cash flow)

This may help especially if this is discuss over couple glass of beers. ^^

Clients Management

hehe

Alex
Mohamed Thabet
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Alex,

I totally agree with that, my first question in that forum was about point no. 4 "Agree these figures with your client"

usually clients will try to reduce the weight factor for off-site activities, like procurement, engineering ..etc.

As that will reduce your project’s overall progress when you submit your invoice in the eraly stages of the project, we as contractors shouldnt try to have a front-end loaded progress weight, but in the mean time we want to be compensated for the effort done, so we will claim that the progress s-curve shouldnt be used to evaluate the invoices, instead a cost s-curve should be used instead using the contract unit rates loaded on the schedule.

which leaves the progress S-Curve usless, because the cost s-curve might show you a 10% completion while the progress weight curve will show you 5% only.

So what will be the real usage of the progress weight S-Curve ? it will be only usefull when rates are confedential & it has to reflect the monetary value of the activities, not the client’s opinion about how much of weight does that activity deserve.

Thats my point of view about it
Alex Wong
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Dear All

What you need to do is
1. create a Resource call "Weighted" - you can give what ever name you can think of
2. The unit for this resource can be PCT
3. Load all activities with this resource and give a weighted value base on cost, effort, time, etc...
4. Agree these figures with your clients (of course)
5. You can also give a value for procurement activity
6. Ideally all the weighted factors will add up to factor of 10, like 1000 10,000 100,000 or even 1,000,000
7. Use resource usage layout in P3 to display resource Weighted with earn value
8. Then you will have a S-Curve that have Plan (Early and Late) Actual (Progressed activity which is same as your Earn Value)
9. If your total figures is base on factor of 10, then you can easly assess your overall weighted project progress,
ie 984 on a total 10,000 weighted is 9.84% completed

HTH

Alex
Joseph Erwin Carg...
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Does dividing the activity cost with the number of duration of that activity not applicable?
Mohamed Thabet
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Alex,

Can you please elaborate ?
Cos that will not reflect the weight of the procurement activities "zero manpower loaded"

Moe
Joseph Erwin Carg...
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Alex,

Do you mean you are going to load directly the percent weight of each activity as a resource? and does p3 really reflect the percent weight on its s-curve, is it through tabular report resource loading method?

tnx,

joseph
Alex Wong
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if you loading the activity with a resource, it will automatically display the weighting in according to the time period.

the advantage using this method is you can veiw the weighted S-Curve in P3 without go outside to a excel program. In addition, you can use a resource curve to drive individual activity to give you a more accurate estimate.

This will give the client confident because all the data is within your Schedule (No import or export) therefore data manpulation is not possible.

HTH

Alex
Alex Wong
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Moe

Another options without exporting and importing is using a resource all "Weighted" and then loading activity with the resource with its assigned value. Then you can use P3 to print out a S-Curve base on "Weighted"

HTH

Alex Wong ---- not Alex Neumann
Alex Neumann
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Sorry I dont know
Mohamed Thabet
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Alex,

I can assign weight factors to my activities, i do it without using (CDI), just assigning a resource WGHT for each activity in my baseline & compare the progress later on using spreadsheets S-Curve, i really dont know how to export to excell a CDI distributed over a timeperiod (if u would elaborate further)

What am trying to say is there any best practiced way to assign those weighting factors to reflect the real weight of an activity ?

Usually what i do is that i will use the formula ((Activity Cost/Project Cost + Activity Duration/Total Activities Duration) / 2)=Activity Weight.

But sometimes as u said it gives unrealistic figures when it come to procurement i.e

& i dont want to discuss with my client some weights based on nothing, is there any concepts used when breaking down the weight factor to project activities ?

Regards,

Moe
Alex Wong
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Moe

I guess the reason why the client want to have a weighted factor S-Curve is because sometime some elements in a project is heavly loaded with cost but without real progress in the project. Ie procurement. And sometime some activity is heavly loaded with labor hour and again for the client, there is no real progress, ie pre-frabication. As a result, to combine all the activity in the master schedule and reflect the closest picture to REAL Progress, your client want to use a weighted factor (Nor cost or hr)

To do that in P3 is a bit complicated,
1. you have to assign a weighting factor for each individual activity. (By the use of CDI)
2. base one the baseline schedule you need to export these weighting factor with time spend in Excel and product the plan curve
3. Agree your baseline weighted factor plan curve with your client as a measure of payments ...etc
4. Progress your schedule as you normally do
5. Export the progess data to the plan curve and product a actual column
6. Plot both Plan and Actal together and you will have your S-Cuver base on weighted factor

Good Luck

Alex