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Forecasting resources from updated schedule

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Rami Al Haddad
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Dear All,

 

I'd like to know what the best practice and/or your experience is with:

1) Obtaining planned resource from and an update schedule (budgeted? / baseline? / remaining?) to compare against actual from timesheets/daily reports. 

2) Forecasting required resources for the next update period (budgeted? / baseline? / remaining?)

3) Deciding on how much resource to add (if any)

Knowing that the updated schedule has slippage.

Note that I’m trying to avoid the simple planned resource histogram established at the time the Baseline was established; which is obviously updated every reporting/update cycle with actual resource for comparison. I see the dynamics of an updated schedule might render such a curve rather useful due to factors like out of sequence work and such!

Please also note that by resource I’m generally referring to manpower/plant and not material.

I hope the question is clear!

 

I appreciate your expert input.

Replies

Rafael Davila
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Joined: 1 Mar 2004
Posts: 5233

While is is easy to figure it out if out of schedule and budget figuring out a satisfactory solution when out of budget/schedule is not that easy.  Performance records gives you information about your assumptions and what to expect if you stick with the strategy that got you into trouble. The lower than estimated productivity will show if the assumptions were too high, but will not automatically give you the solution.  Looking merely at lower than estimated production rates is not enough to determine if more of the same low production resources is the solution.

Not always increasing amount of labor resources is the "best" solution:

  • At times a change in equipment selection is a better option than keeping low production resources.
  • At times overtime work using the same available resources is a better option.
  • At times increasing the crew size is counterproductive.

I find the histogram color selection nice but the information it gives completely useless for the question at hand.

The practical approach can be to revise the projected costs, production rates and dates if keeping current strategy by adjusting current resources production rates. Most probably it will disclose further delays will happen than if using production rates that are not happening.  The unit-production system will undoubtedly disclose what are the current production rates.

Then model several scenarios as to project the possible outcomes. Increased resource amount on the critical activities can be part of the solution, can be increasing the amount of resources within the same shift or can be by means of an additional shift at different hours. Another option can be to increase work hours via "overtime". Another option can be a change in construction methodology. Another option can be a change in equipment. Another option can be a re-sequencing of activitiesw like increased overlapping if possible. Sometimes production can be increased by means of some strategies as paying by piecework instead of by hour.  All possibilities must be on the table.

Rafael Davila
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Joined: 1 Mar 2004
Posts: 5233

To figure it out if something have to be done it is enough to look at the projections, of the projections are ok nothing must be done, if the projections are lagging then something must be done.  There is no need for a coloring book, substance matter a lot more.

I do not see the relationship between effort (man hours) and production in the "beautiful" chart that only gives a summary of all effort for all activities distributed over time. 

  1. Do all resources produce the same thing?
  2. Even if they produce the same thing how many things per man-hour on each period and accumulated? Here unit-costing systems are better.
  3. Maybe the unit production rate was as expected but a few resources did not worked as planned or were diverted to a non critical activity.
  4. When you track production rates across several activities a 10% of total in one activity might represent 500 units of work while in another activity it might represent 300 units. It is not a good idea to use % as a measure of physical work except when dealing with lump sum volume you cannot easily compare among activities.
  5. As I said before many of the software available do not provide for transparent distinction between production rate, effort and activity duration. Among these are P6 and MSP.  If using P6 you will have to calculate them separately and make the schedule adjustments manually.
  6. The following figure shows how different production rates on different shifts can impact the duration of an activity. This simple scenarion cannot be modeled using P6, [Team 1 works 10 hrs/day on Mon, Tue & Wed during early hours while Team 2 works 10 hrs/day on Wed, Thu & Fryday on late hours].  A unit-production system should disclose the current production rates for each separate shift without any problem.PR02 photo PR02_zpsnpagtzag.jpg
  7. Even when using Spider Project that can model production rates and keep thier performance records how much volume of workn is realized on each period at home we find unit-costing system easier and reliable up to 1/100 of the dolar as it is integrated with accounting and payroll system. We just have to adjust production rates, see the projection and then if need be start analizyng the options. Getting to know current production rates is just the start.

With current and reliable production rates you can start with a credible trend analysis even if you have to make manual adjustments and document the changes for transparency if your software do not handle production rates and requires you to work them out separately.

Rami Al Haddad
User offline. Last seen 5 years 10 weeks ago. Offline
Joined: 16 Jun 2005
Posts: 60
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Hi Rafael,

 

Thank you for extensive reply, which I appreciate for it sheds light on an interesting aspect of the schedule with respect to cost and time. 

While it has been a while since I've worked on a project where the schedule progress was used for progress payments purposes ; and this is not what I'm after with my question here! that time I did, a summary of the setup was as follows:

1) Activities % Complete was set to "Physical"

2) BOQ quantities and selling price was loaded with "Expenses" not "Resources"

3) Used Cost Accounts and the CA Hierarchy was such that it replicates the BOQ CBS.

The above ensured the divorce the Technical Paper you referred to mentioned without creating any complications mentioned.

Apart from that, what I'm trying to gain insight without having to go to PMCs PM and the Engineers PM and lecture them on the technical shortcomings and downside of scheduling software touted to do exactly what they are asking for! What figures/calculations can I; in a straight forward OR at least in a simple manner, use the figures produced by the update in terms of manpower (labor units) to confidently say that next week we will need to maintain/increase our labor levels!

Note all the beautifully colored bars/curves outlined in a red box an the quantities they represent!

3047
capture.jpg

 

Thank you,

Rami

Rafael Davila
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Joined: 1 Mar 2004
Posts: 5233

From your historical records and the estimate that might be adjusted to the job particular conditions you can get the team production rates that you most probably used to prepare your schedule.  If there is a variance shown in your unit-costing then you shall make the adjustments. 

At times the adjustments are straight forward, at other times they are not as simple. Some times crew production rate is in linear relationship to the amount of production resources; that can be the case of paint crew, masonry crew and the like, but others such as concrete placement and earthwork might not be as simple.

The alternatives shall always be discussed with the PM who shall be able to give you the answers, he might opt to increase crew size, he might opt to change the crew composition as using more productive equipment is a way to increase the associated labor productivity. Unit costs and production rates are not only related to labor but frequently to the whole crew composition. A change in the methodology can imply a change in projected cost, a change in team composition, a change in team production rate.  There is a trade-off among the options and the solution is not always easy or predictable but a good unit-costing system can tell you a lot.

It is not unusual for a cost component to be shared among many activities.  You might have several activities for cement plaster, one per room if a single story building. In this case tracking of costs and production rates per cost account, per activity might be too much for practical purposes but the unit costing will give you the overall total to date and per reporting period.

Along with the management team use the unit-costing to figure out current unit costs and production rates. As the scheduler use the software to model the time impact of the discussed options with the management team using the information on hand.

In some cases your solution might require to consider different production rates for different teams working on different shifts on same activity; each team with a different composition, with different amount of work hours, with different calendars ....  This is a more complex case that require a better model, a model that can relate activity duration to resource/shift production rate.

Rafael Davila
User offline. Last seen 1 day 3 hours ago. Offline
Joined: 1 Mar 2004
Posts: 5233

Elapsed Time is not the same as Effort, and none are the same as Work Done.  Elapsed Time might be a week, Effort during that week might be 74 man-hours and Work Done the installation of a single brick!

Usually you get the right number for each if using a unit-cost system tied to your accounting and payroll system. Schedule updating is usually very far from these numbers and many software does not include for the historical recording of all.

http://www.foundationsoft.com/unit-cost-production-reporting/

When you add to the unit-costing within the schedule the requirement the strict adherence to Billings you get into the impossible dream.

http://www.nflaace.org/index_files/john_orr_cost_loaded_schedule_updatin...

I do not know of a single scheduling software that provides full integration with unit-costing records, that include the quantity of each unit of work performed during each period, at some point some manual method must be included. 

As a matter of fact neither P6 nor MSP provide for financial periods to include the quantity of each unit of work performed during each period, therefore not even with manual methods you can fully integrate the two.

It is more practical to use the unit-costing-system as the source of data and plug summary historical values into the scheduling software. Although the job-costing system misses the time model it is better for tracking costs and production rates. Then when need be you shall make the adjustments in your model.

Best of Breed approach is a sensible approach, the All Mighty Super-Duper Database is an illusion.