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Risk vs. Uncertainty

5 replies [Last post]
Thu, 2008-05-29 08:43
David Appelfeld
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Joined: 5 May 2008
Posts: 7
Groups: Civil Engineering
Hi there
Can anyone explain me what is exact different between risk and uncertainty and what is their connections. I read some definitions and explanations for that but any of my references are not 100% clear about that.

Cheers
David
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Replies

Tue, 2008-06-03 09:57
#1
Darren Kosa
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Hi David,

Although he was lampooned for it by the media, I’ve always likened Risk (Management) to Donald Rumsfeld’s press briefing when he was Secretary of Defense.

"There are known knowns. There are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we now know we don’t know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we do not know we don’t know."

Risks are the known unknowns – if you take it verbatim from the PMBOK. An identified event or condition that, should it occur, has either a positive or a negative effect on the project’s objectives.

Uncertainty is the unknown unknowns – the limitation of available information which informs our understanding of how the project can be delivered.

You can also draw a similar conclusion from decision theory which might also help with your master thesis...

By identifying the risks and their impact, you thereby reduce the uncertainty in the project.

Regards,

Darren
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Tue, 2008-06-03 06:16
#2
David Appelfeld
User offline. Last seen 12 years 42 weeks ago. Offline
Joined: 5 May 2008
Posts: 7
Groups: Civil Engineering
Hi Omar
Thank you for your answer that helps me and you also got me another thought especially about criticality which I can use for my master thesis. Thank you
David
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Tue, 2008-06-03 05:49
#3
Anoon Iimos
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Groups: Pinoy Planning Planet Community
uncertainty is a risk, while some risks are identifiable and determinable, uncertainty remains invisible
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Mon, 2008-06-02 16:20
#4
Omar Grant
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Joined: 25 Sep 2005
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Hi David, A schedule ’risk’ is an event/process that may not proceed accordingly to plan and therefore adversly affect the project time/cost outcome(s). Uncertainty is often, as an example, used with reference to activity durations. Note that an activity with a high uncertainty factor, but of no/low criticality will probably not be a ’risk’ because it will not affect schedule time outcomes if it is longer than planned. Conversely, a critical path activity with a relatively low uncertainty value may have the ability to influence and delay the project time outcome(s). There are other non-discrete types of risks such as the failure of a project team to ’own’ the project schedule, with far worse outcomes than most other types of ’risk’. Hope this helps.
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Thu, 2008-05-29 08:51
#5
Charleston-Joseph...
User offline. Last seen 3 years 10 weeks ago. Offline
Joined: 10 Jul 2005
Posts: 1347
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Hi and Hello,

Is it possible to use the word "PLEASE"

before anything else.

Please re-submit
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