Risk vs. Uncertainty
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Hi David,
Although he was lampooned for it by the media, I’ve always likened Risk (Management) to Donald Rumsfeld’s press briefing when he was Secretary of Defense.
"There are known knowns. There are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we now know we don’t know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we do not know we don’t know."
Risks are the known unknowns – if you take it verbatim from the PMBOK. An identified event or condition that, should it occur, has either a positive or a negative effect on the project’s objectives.
Uncertainty is the unknown unknowns – the limitation of available information which informs our understanding of how the project can be delivered.
You can also draw a similar conclusion from decision theory which might also help with your master thesis...
By identifying the risks and their impact, you thereby reduce the uncertainty in the project.
Regards,
Darren
Hi Omar
Thank you for your answer that helps me and you also got me another thought especially about criticality which I can use for my master thesis. Thank you
David
uncertainty is a risk, while some risks are identifiable and determinable, uncertainty remains invisible
Hi David, A schedule risk is an event/process that may not proceed accordingly to plan and therefore adversly affect the project time/cost outcome(s). Uncertainty is often, as an example, used with reference to activity durations. Note that an activity with a high uncertainty factor, but of no/low criticality will probably not be a risk because it will not affect schedule time outcomes if it is longer than planned. Conversely, a critical path activity with a relatively low uncertainty value may have the ability to influence and delay the project time outcome(s). There are other non-discrete types of risks such as the failure of a project team to own the project schedule, with far worse outcomes than most other types of risk. Hope this helps.
Hi and Hello,
Is it possible to use the word "PLEASE"
before anything else.
Please re-submit