I don’t find MSP so "unpredictable".
When updating it is useful to first get to the right View and Table so you can see what’s happening, and then follow a consistent procedure every time, like:

Show Tracking Gantt
Show Tracking Table
Show Tracking Toolbar
Set Baseline
Set Status Date
Format the gridlines to show Status Date (a fat red vertical line).
Then type in Actual Start and Actual Finish Dates.
If the Task is not Finished, type in Actual Start Date, and Actual Duration, Then Remaining Duration.
The second and third buttons on the Tracking Toolbar are for:
1 ) when work has been done continuously from Actual Start to Status Date, update to the Status Date, then re-estimate Remaining Duration.
2) When work was discontinued after an initial Start, move the unused portion of the Duration (which is to the left of the Status Date Gridline) to the right of the Status Date, then re-estimate Remaining Duration.

Always review/re-estimate Remaining Duration, even if just to leave it as is.

Always use explicit Actual Start and Finish Dates.

Never type in % Complete (let MSP calculate it for you), except for maybe 0% and 100%.

This procedure is pretty reliable and can be extended for situations where Work (Hours) and/or Cost do not get automatically get updated along with Duration.

Be aware that MS Project was originally not designed to do this, and it uses some less elegant tricks to achieve that result.

It puts constraints on not-started activities in order to reschedule work after the status date. This will override any existing earlier constraint dates and create constraints on activities that never had one.

Furthermore, for in-progress activities it uses the resume dates to reschedule the remaining work, and in doing so, it overwrites the resume dates of any suspended activities that lay before the status date.