Website Upgrade Incoming - we're working on a new look (and speed!) standby while we deliver the project

Tips on using this forum..

(1) Explain your problem, don't simply post "This isn't working". What were you doing when you faced the problem? What have you tried to resolve - did you look for a solution using "Search" ? Has it happened just once or several times?

(2) It's also good to get feedback when a solution is found, return to the original post to explain how it was resolved so that more people can also use the results.

Project Risk Analysis

1 reply [Last post]
Mon, 2005-05-30 01:39
DATTATREYA PADHARTHI
User offline. Last seen 5 years 52 weeks ago. Offline
Joined: 18 Apr 2003
Posts: 90
Groups: Petro-Chem / Oil & Gas, Regional Representatives
Schedule Risk analysis itself is a complicated subject full of probabilities & statistics.
A robust schedule is a mandatory prerequisite for such an analysis.
A schedule where durations are governed by quantities (productivity).
But when it comes to activity relationships, things become really complicated. We can end up with number of possibilities between two activities.
E.g Piping Prefab & erection & their relationship (SS/FF).
At the start of the Project/Proposal stage how should we take care of these uncertainities in relationships?
Top

Replies

Mon, 2005-05-30 07:01
#1
Frank Borcherdt
User offline. Last seen 7 years 50 weeks ago. Offline
Joined: 3 May 2001
Posts: 88
Groups: None
Dattatreya,

Risk analysis is usually modeled in a tool such as PertMaster which not only allows you to quantify the optimistic, most likely and pessimistic durations and the distribution between the low and high values BUT also allows:-
probabilistic calendars to model weather, industrial stoppages, etc
conditional branching to model contingency plans should a key milestone date be exceeded (recovery plan)
probabilistic branching to model activities failing to meet a standard/or test x% of the time and therefore rework/redesign is required and those activities are pre-defined.

It will run many iterations (you can supply) and produce outputs showing how often activities are critical and the range of expected resource and cost outcomes.

Take a look at http://www.pertmaster.com/ for further info.
Top