Hi PP,

The is another natural solution:

Applying an Ant Colony Optimization Algorithm-Based Multiobjective Approach for Time – Cost Trade-Off
by Ying Xiong, Ph.D. Candidate, (School of Economics and Mgmt., Beijing Jiaotong Univ., Beijing 100044, China. E-mail: xy72@yeah.net) and Yaping Kuang, (Instructor, School of Civ. Engrg. and Arch., Zhejiang Univ., Hangzhou 310027, China; and, Ph.D. Candidate, School of Economics and Mgmt., Tongji Univ., Shanghai 200092, China.

Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, Vol. 134, No. 2, February 2008, pp. 153-156,

Abstract: The time.cost trade-off is one of the most crucial aspects of construction project planning, which in fact is a combinatorial optimization problem. This technical note employed an evolutionary algorithm — ant colony optimization (ACO) algorithm to deal with the time – cost trade-off problems. Combining with the modified adaptive weight approach, the ACO algorithm can find out the optimal solutions, and define the Pareto front as well. The development of the ACO-based multiobjective approach in this technical note provides an attractive alternative to solving construction time – cost optimization.
"

So with the help of google, I think that the tool makers can find plenty of improved solution on the net.

With kind regards,

Samer

I am a big fan of google.

"Research on the fully fuzzy time-cost trade-off based on genetic algorithms "

Jin Chao-guang1, 2, Ji Zhuo-shang1, Lin Yan2, Zhao Yuan-min2 and Huang Zhen-dong2

(1) Ship CAD Engineering Center, Dalian University of Technology, 116025 Dalian, China
(2) Dalian Shipyard Co. Ltd., 116005 Dalian, China

Received: 21 June 2005

Abstract It is very difficult, to estimate exact values of time and cost of an activity in project scheduling process because many uncertain factors, such was weather, productivity level, human factors etc., dynamically, affect them during project implementation process. A GAs-based fully fuzzy optimal time-cost trade-off model is presented based on fuzzy sets and genetic algorithms (GAs). In tihs model all parameters and variables are characteristics by fuzzy numbers. And then GAs is adopted to search for the optimal solution to this model. The method solves the time-cost trade-off problems under an uncertain environment and is proved practicable through a giving example in ship building scheduling.
"

If anyone gets the complete paper, please offer to share what the details are.

With kind regards,

Samer

Hi PP,

This is common sense talking:

When is the Critical Path Not the Most Critical Path?

http://www.icoste.org/AACE2008 Papers/Toronto_ps07.pdf

I am sure that something good will come up, but it is taking time.

With kind regards,

Samer

Dear Rafael,

Here is an article with a sensible conclusion:

A Critical Look At Critical Path Analysis
I’ve finished so I’ll start
A critical look at critical Path Analysis

John Bolton, Programmes Director, Parallel Project Training

http://blog.parallelprojecttraining.com/project-management-a...

Thanks to google of course.

With kind regards,

Samer

Hi,

This is the recent evolution in CPM per google:

Using Relationship Diagrams to Enhance the Critical Path Method

www.oracle.com/ocom/groups/public/@ocom/documents/.../042744.pdf

With kind regards,

Samer

Dear Rafael,

I have completed all the courses graduate and undergraduate in Civil Engineering. Statics, Dynamics, Operation Research, linear and non-linear theories, and I have taken close to 1000 training hours in the past 3 years in different fields :).

Please note that I have also written a three dimensional finite element analysis program for Structural frames twenty years ago. But this is not what I did since then. I have been managing projects.

The last Internation software black box that I debugged 14 years ago took me 9 months and i found around 70 errors. Do not worry about my mathematical understanding of CPM, it is simple. But I do not have the time to get into it at the moment.

I think some common sense and an excel sheet is enough to manage up to $500M projects in my experience.

With kind regards,

Samer

Hi Vladimir,

Do you have any idea about what these guys are using:

http://www.quintiq.com/
"
Advanced Planning & Scheduling Software Solutions
Quintiq Advanced Planning & Scheduling software is unique in the sense that it comprises standard software creating an exact fit to the customer’s needs. The Quintiq advanced software is applicable for strategic, tactical and operational planning and real time event management needs. Unique are the large scale and multistage planning solutions that can be created with Quintiq, enabling it to provide integrated enterprise wide, multi-site and (logistic) supply chain solutions.

Advanced Planning & Scheduling Software Solutions that empower your competitive advantage by enabling you to solve the most complex planning and scheduling puzzles.
Employee Scheduling (Staff, Employees, Shifts and Personnel)
"

With kind regards,

Samer

Hi,

Someone is doing something:

CPM Task Force

CPM Task Force. Mr. Seth Schulgen- CHAIRMAN. Williams Brothers Const. Co., Inc. sschulgen@wbctx.com. Mr. Brad Everett. J.D.

www.agctx.org/assets/files/taskforce/cpm.pdf

With kind regards,

Samer

Hi PP,

A publication from a good source:

Wickwire, Hurlbut, and Lerman, Use of Critical Path. Method Techniques in Contract Claims: Issues and. Developments 1974 to 1988,
www1.fidic.org/resources/contracts/icc_oct05/wickwire_icc05.pdf

The Construction Lawyer, Journal of the Forum on the Construction Industry, Volume 19, Number 4, 1999

Use of Critical Path Method on Contract Claims – 2000.
Jon m. Wickwire and Stuart Ockman.

Introduction:
“… failure of modern scheduling software to require the discipline and realism necessary to plan and schedule complex construction projects. Although most construction attorneys see only the final printouts and schedules, it is important to understand where the potential abuses lie and what must be done to uncover them”

They came to the same conclusion that has been reached here until now.

With kind regards,

Samer

Dear Rafeal,

I can tell you what I am doing, I ask for the simplest form of Program of Work that a Contractor can manage to his ability. The solution for a Program of Work is Contractor Dependent. Contractor submit the Program of Work and present their plan to complete the work. If they are committed to complete the Job No Schedule in necessary.

When Contractors give me 15 programs of works every month with 1000’s of activities in each, it is very simple to debug and return with more speed than the printer that printed them, for the simple reason that they are full of errors and not based on correct planning.

Action will come when we get to send a letter to PP Admin to form a team and provide new standards. This seems how humans are improving their systems. They chat for a while and then form a task force, this task force creates a solution. Then, you either become a company, a education institute, etc.

It seems that we have PP members + Sponsors + Spider = New Industry Standards.

With kind regards,

Samer
PS. The equation proposed before is missing the Rafael’s ingrident "Dynamic", stay tuned.

Hi All,

I found this that also supports the same thing; reply from the founder of CPM to the article of 2003:

“
idea.library.drexel.edu/bitstream/1860/2934/1/Plotnick_Fredric.pdf
RDM
Relationship Diagramming Method
A Thesis
Submitted to the Faculty
of
Drexel University
by
Fredric Leigh Plotnick, Esq., P.E.
in partial fulfillment of the
requirements for the degree
of
Doctor of Philosophy
August 2008


Responding to the ENR article just cited, the co-founder of CPM, James E. Kelley, Jr., writes:
Your cover story, Critics Can’t Find the Logic in Many of Today’s CPM Schedules, paints a disheartening picture of the current state of CPM schedules (ENR 5/26 p. 30). It’s only 46 years since Morgan Walker and I first worked out CPM for duPont and yet project people are still falling into some of the same scheduling traps warned against during CPM’s childhood. The use of features like "leads and lags," "multiple calendars" and "assigned constraints" do provide some levels of schedule flexibility. In practice, their use too often leads to inconsistent schedules and misleading views of project condition.
In the early days of CPM, computing capability was at a premium. Rooting out inconsistencies in scheduling data had to be left completely to the planner. In practice, this meant deliberately limiting the use of the "flexibility" features. Today, the desktop computer I’m using to compose this letter has far more capability than the UNIVAC we used for our first CPM calculations. Thus, there is no reason why the computer cannot be programmed to tell me that my scheduling input is inconsistent and why.
“
… and this was the last part of the conclusion of the Thesis:

“The full promise of CPM was limited by the power of early computers. But now, as computing power has become more available and affordable, it is time to revisit the original “engineering fixes” of the early CPM programs, replace the duct tape, chewing gum and bailing wire with better adhesives, and once again embrace the full potential of CPM for management of our infrastructure construction projects. And then the Schedulers and Project Managers for these projects should lead by example for all projects, programs and operations requiring planning as well as scheduling.
”

So basically, almost everybody is saying using CPM without management is a mess at this time. It seems that I am doing a Forensic Analysis on CPM. Effective management (so far) seems the minimum required tool for reasonable CPM use.

With kind regards,

Samer

Hi Everyone,

It seems that we are getting somewhere, but not in Construction yet.

"
www.tmcnet.com

Workforce optimization and advanced customer interactions systems provider NICE Systems is working with Microsoft to help Microsoft (News - Alert) Communications Server “14” customers optimize the value of customer interactions.

NICE, a Microsoft Gold Certified Partner and a global provider of advanced solutions, also helps enterprises and security organizations to drive business performance, reduce risk and ensure safety.

“We are excited to enable Microsoft Communications Server ‘14’ customers to benefit from the NICE offering, particularly Interaction Analytics, so that they may enhance their compliance efforts, expand their ability to capture and analyze web and voice interactions, and provide a more satisfying customer experience while increasing overall business efficiency,” said Udi Ziv (News - Alert), president Enterprise Product Group, NICE Systems.

Collaborating with Microsoft and extending the partnership will give NICE customers the added benefits of its real-time, cross-channel interaction analytics. Eventually, this will impact customer interactions as they occur and deliver insights to improve organization’s business performance.

In a recent press release discussing the new agreement, Yancey Smith, director of Communications Server Product Management at Microsoft, said that Communications Server ‘14’ can change every communication into a more collaborative, engaging and accessible interaction.

Acting as an integrated suite of targeted business solutions and applications, NICE SmartCenter allows businesses to optimize their Customer Dynamics. This is made possible by capturing the intent of both customer and business, analyzing the intent to reveal insights and using these insights to drive actions that have a real-time impact on business performance.

If organizations are able to take care of the complex interactions with customers they can easily deliver value across a variety of business imperatives.

Understanding interaction means they will be able to accomplish a range of tasks such as ensuring compliance, mitigating risk, streamlining operational performance, differentiating the customer experience and expanding value beyond the contact center into the entire firm
"

With kind regards,

Samer

Dear Scarllet,

Look at nature for finding new solutions not at yourself.

Natural systems are dynamic efficient. They change the use of the material over a long period of time.

A small search at aminal homes:
Animal homes vary from dens, burrows, hollow logs, galls on plants and trees, and numerous types of nests. Look for signs of animal homes by listening for animal sounds such as birds singing , the rustling of animal movement, and the sounding of alarms. Observe tracks and trails found in mud, sand, or snow. Notice feeding signs such as chew marks on plants, animal remains, and droppings or scat. Look for traces of feathers, fur, antlers, shells, and skins. By learning about the habits and characteristics of animals, you will be able to locate and identify many of their homes.

Coming to think of it, maybe that is why Vladimir used the name Spider:

“
Animal Homes http://www.uen.org/utahlink/activities/view_activity.cgi?activity_id=3804

There are over 32,000 types of spiders living on Earth. They live in almost every area from the hottest tropics to the cold continent of Antarctica. Spiders are easily identified by their 8 legs and their ability to spin a web.

Spiders eat insects that they catch in their web. They have fangs to bite the insect. Many spiders also have poisonous glands to help kill the insects, and some are even poisonous to humans.

Spiders have the ability to produce silk from an organ in their abdomen called the spinneret. The spider’s web has many purposes in addition to being a place to live.

Spiders use their web to trap insects for food. Once an insect is caught, they may also use their web to tie up their victim.

Spiders also lay a line of silk as they move around. They anchor the line to a surface, and use the line just like a mountain climber uses their safety rope.
“
Spiders initially started producing silk for reasons other than web-making. When spiders moved from the water to the land in the Early Devonian period, they started making silk to protect their bodies and their eggs. Spiders gradually started using silk for hunting purposes, first as guide lines and signal lines, then as ground or bush webs, and eventually as the aerial webs which are so famous today.
Spiders produce silken thread using several paired spinneret glands located at the tip of their abdomen. Each gland produces a thread for a special purpose – for example a trailed safety line, sticky silk for trapping prey or fine silk for wrapping it. Spiders use different gland types to produce different silks, and some spiders are capable of producing up to 8 different silks during their lifetime.
Most spiders have three pairs of spinnerets, each having its own function – there are also spiders with just one pair and others with as many as four pairs.
Webs allow a spider to catch prey without having to expend energy by running it down. Thus it is an efficient method of gathering food. However, constructing the web is in itself an energetically costly process due to the large amount of protein required, in the form of silk. In addition, after a time the silk will lose its stickiness and thus become inefficient at capturing prey. It is not uncommon for spiders to eat their own web daily to recoup some of the energy used in spinning. The silk proteins are thus recycled.
The tensile strength of spider silk is greater than the same weight of steel and has much greater elasticity. Its microstructure is under investigation for potential applications in industry, including bullet-proof vests and artificial tendons. Researchers have used genetically modified mammals to produce the proteins needed to make this material
www.earthlife.net/chelicerata/web-evolve.html
“
Unfortunately in human society the word primitive is often used as an insult and means something that is no good, while advanced means good, in evolution there is no good or bad except from a personal point of view, all of life is good. In fact many people would prefer a ’primitive’ spider like a Tarantula to a more advanced spider like a Black Widow. You will also occasionally hear or read the terms ’highly evolved’ and ’more evolved’ these really refer to the number of observed evolutionary steps that can be discerned in the creatures evolutionary history. Again being highly evolved is not necessarily good, many of humanity’s most obnoxious parasites are more ’highly evolved’ in terms of evolutionary steps, than humanity itself.
Evolution is not finished, and it certainly didn’t stop for spiders at the orb-web design. Many spiders show modifications of this basic form, many of which are simplifications. The New Guinea spider Pasilobus ssp. builds a simple triangular web consisting of only three radii and four sticky cross bars. This works because if an insect flying past brushes against one of these strands it breaks off from the outer radius and hangs down. In doing so the free end swings around and sticks to the insect which is then reeled in from the still attached end by the spider.
There are also fascinating examples like Dinopis guatemalensis the Net Casting Spider which makes a net of silk web and then hangs upside down waiting for something to pass so that it can drop its net on to it. Or the Bolas Spiders like the American Mastophora ssp. which emit a pheromone that mimics the sex attractant used by certain moths of the genus Spodoptera (Army Worms). Males that are attracted to the false pheromone are then caught by the spider using a swinging a stand of silk with a sticky blob on the end, the moth gets caught in this, the original bolas, and then the spider hauls it in.
The real master craftsmen of the spider world are the orb-web spinners. Yet even within this group we can distinguish evolutionary paths. Spiders that build orb-webs, like other spiders, still have to deal with the insects that get caught in it. This can be tricky as insects are often quick to escape, for instance flies caught in a web spun by Araneus sericatus escape in 5 seconds (on average) if left to their own devices. Also the insect which is caught in the web may be large and aggressive, grasshoppers and crickets can kick quite hard and spiders do get hurt by them, not to mention bees and wasps.

The moral of the story is that natural systems (we being one of them) tailor their systems according to the intended use. CPM can have many levels. For $5M and under projects, you need very simple tools. For mega projects with thousands of Contractors, you need the structured and disciplined approach

Since we part of the natural system and we are evolving on a daily basis, I would suggest that you custom tailer the tool according to the need. And if the tool is not providing you with time and cost saving, then it is time to find a more SUITABLE tool to use.

With kind regards,

Samer

Dear Vladimir,

If the solution is easy, we would have found it a long time ago.

That is why we have to think of a simpler concept and tool to save time and cost.

With kind regards,

Samer

Dear Scarllet,

It is very important that you understand history because you learn from it. The future on the other hand is unknow, the best this are Trends.

What we are discussing here is good to know becasue you are using these tools. Think about CPM like the infrastructure that you are using; roads, IT networks, etc. How hard for you would it be for you to build a project without roads and electricity. Hard.

The same thing applies to the Black Boxes. If you do not know the limitations and what they can do, you might not get where you want, or you might not be able to build what you want!

The issue is CPM was invented to reduce time and cost, and now it is a complicated tool that is not meeting these goals.

With kind regards,

Samer

Dear Mike,

The "Lebombo Bone" is very important because the of the concept. It is a tool that is made by the OWNER to schedule. He/she can carry it, use it, modify it at anytime and anywhere.

I sound like a the next commercial for ORACLE on IPOD.

With kind regards,

Samer

PS. Rafael, I have to modidy my earlier statement about Contractual Documents, we can use them a Toilet Paper (recycled or not) only after the elapse of the period of time allowed by Law in the Country where the Project was executed to claim for any "right" either party might find and prove after the closure of the project.

Dear Rafael,

Owners investing in projects are much smart than me at least :) The want to save money by reducing time and cost.

Seems to me Vladimir that what you are saying is that correct CPM is not a tool that is serving the Decision Makers directly. They need a team of smart experts to explain the Trends.

(Owners/CM/PMs) obviously are at the kindergarden level of experties in operating CPM black boxes as Rafael pointed out.

I am still in favor of "Lebombo bone" from 35,000B.C. for the simple reason that the owner of the schedule made use of the tool.

With kind regards,

Samer

Dear Rafael,

Read below what the introduction of published article in 1984 in AACE is saying:

"
1984 AACE Transactions
The CPM Technique in Construction: A critique, By Derek Mason

INTRODUCTION
The Critical Path Method (CPM) has now been in
use for a quarter of a century. As a technology,
it is young compared to, say, the science of pressure
vessel design, but its youth can no longer
be allowed to serve as an excuse for substandard
application. If the development of computers is
used as a comparison, the progress of CPM and
project scheduling looks somewhat anemic. So it
behooves us to take a critical look at the status
of the tool. Because of CPM’s omnipresence in
the profession, the profession itself should also
be critically examined.
CPM scheduling has been overdeveloped as a
science and underdeveloped ’as a user-oriented
tool. It has all too often been forgotten that
schedules are not produced for schedulers, but
for managers. It is essential that service to
the user be given high operational priority.
"
With kind regards,

Samer
PS. Not sure what’s inside the black boxes. I didn’t open one for CPM before, sorry Rafael.

Dear Rafael and Vladimi,

I think that you will like reading this, it is a good reference:

NASA Scheduling Management Handbook
This handbook provides schedule management guidance for NASA Headquarters, NASA

http://spacese.spacegrant.org/uploads/Schedule/NASA_SMH_DRAF...

They have a very structured approach. Having the best people in the world automatically make everything easy. Not quite the same at Construction Sites.

With kind regards,

Samer

Hi,

This is interesting topic found in a guide: Common Time Robbers. This is actually written down in a guide. These guys know exactly what is wrong, but they have the discipline to make it work. Pretty much like what Vladimir is doing. The rest are not so lucky.

Scheduling Guide for Program Managers
www.dau.mil/pubs/gdbks/schedulinguide.pdf

APPENDIX B
Common Time Robbers1

• Procrastination
• Setting up appointments
• Too many meetings
• Monitoring delegated work
• Unclear roles/job descriptions
• Unnecessary crisis intervention
• Need to get involved in details to get job done
• Not enough proven or trustworthy managers
• Vague goals and objectives
• Too many people involved in minor decision making
• Lack of technical knowledge
• Lack of authorization to make judgment decisions
• Unreasonable time constraints
• Lack of commitment from higher authorities
• Too much travel
• Lack of adequate project management tools
• Poor functional communications/ writing skills
• Inability to relate to peers in a personal way
• Rush into decisions/beat the deadline
• Lack of reward (“a pat on the back can do wonders”)
• Expecting too much from one’s staff and oneself
• Going from crisis to crisis
• Conflicting directives
• Fire drills
• Lack of privacy
• Lack of challenge in job duties
• Bureaucratic roadblocks (“ego”)
• Empire-building line managers
• Too much work for one person to handle effectively
• Excessive paperwork
• Lack of clerical/administrative support
• Workload growing faster than capacity 78
• Dealing with unreliable subcontractors
• Personnel not willing to take risks
• Demand for short-term results
• Lack of long-range planning
• Being overdirected
• Overreacting management
• Poor lead time on projects
• Documentation (reports/red tape)
• Large number of projects
• Inadequate or inappropriate requirements
• Desire for perfection
• Lack of dedication by technical experts
• Lack of project organization
• Constant pressure
• Constant interruptions
• Project budget problems
• Shifting of functional personnel
• Lack of qualified manpower

With kind regards,

Samer

Hi all,

I found this article that describes the status of Scheduling in the Introduction and the Conclusion sections.

www.pmicos.org/topics/ aug2006tom.pdf
Scheduling 101: A "Behind-the-Scenes" Look at Basic Schedule ..

More of the same, but the good thing it is a published article by PMI college of Scheduling. Imagine that... they agree.

With kind regards,

Samer
P.S. You can only make toilet papers out of Contract Documents only after the elapse of 10 years period Rafael.

Dear Rafael,

I did not think that the guys in the 60’s messed up. They had 3000 projects running at the same time and they wanted to land on the moon. So I think that it is safe to say that if you want to build a project on earth for $5M or less, you do not need a progam. You need a calculator only. On the other hand, if you want to go outside the Earth, they you need computers for communication back and forth. I think that construction (like LEGO) is done manually up their as well.

On the other hand, if you have layers and layers of people all over the place, and you are paying them. Then chances are if you buy the black box, and create a model, some kind of calculations is better than nothing. A little order is good. And maybe, just maybe, if you hire the best guys to create the model and maintain the system, then you can get COST AND TIME savings.

With kind regards,

Samer

Dear Vladimir,

First of all, let me tell you that I hope that I have the opportunity to work on your software in the future.

The primary issue that I have is that a tool must serve the Owner/ Construction Manager in taking the right decision on the project to save time and cost. I also believe that this is much needed at any point in history.

I can safely say that according to my experience a project of a budget of around ($5 Million, 2 years) can be completed with without anytools whatsoever. The only scheduling that is needed is an excel sheet and a calculator. The Construction Manager can draw the schedule with excel on ONE page and monitor it and reduce the cost on a daily basis. I have done this at least 50 times.

On larger projects, where the uncertainities are more, different people are working on different tasks, the issue becomes harder. The actual plan is difficult to FORM. Time is needed to create it, and many other factors come into play. For the sake of argument let us assume that the only issue here is to come up with a plan to save time and money. Speaking from my experience, I get 5000 activites (150 pages) projects frequently, and I review and return them within 4 hours for the simple reason that it is not representing the project. Most frequently, a planner prepares the Schedule, and the experienced people do not have the time to check the Method Statement, Constructabilities, Deliverables, relationships, and Contractural constraints.

I am confident that you program Spider is a magnificent tool. The issue in not with the black box. The issue is with creating the model. The Construction Manager/ Owner (who are the decision makers) must be able to communicate directly with the software to take the important decision. Nowadays, the tools are driven by Schedulers who know how to use the tool (to some extent/ depending on their experience) without the proper interaction from management. This tool is used to create Schedules to show contactual milestones, and unless the other party is experienced enough to debug the submitted program, it become a contractural document that is supposed to be monitored and tracked to achieve the project.

My suggestion is simple, Model Creation must be simple enough like punching the buttons on a calculator. I think that you need to communicate with Texas Instrument and create such a tool.

I also suggest that you send the 4 guys copies of Spider with all the supporting documents. Let them test it and use it and next they sit down and have coffee, they would be able to talk about something of value available on the market and ENR can publish the state of the available tools around the world. Of course, I understand that there are many other issues at play here, but it seems that they guys genuinely want to improve the status.

No body is talking about the Black Box, everyone is assuming it is working correctly. The issue here is that getting the right information, in the right order to create the right model is something left for specialist.

With kind regards,

Samer

Dear Rafael,

I came accross a very interesting article published in the ENR magazine in 2003:

" Critics Can’t Find the Logic in Many of Today’s CPM Schedules." It is a 4 page article quoting "Priests" and "tool makers" in this field.

www.cpmguru.com/.../ENR%20-%20Critics%20of%20Todays%20CPM%20Schedules.pdf

So, we can reasonable say that up to 2003, according to published sources, that the state of Scheduling is a mess.

The basic need of the Owner/Construction Manager to save time and money is not met "easily" by the available tools in the market. The user-tool interface is a mess. Users can’t transform their ideas into CORRECT networks of logic easily, in order for the black box to calculate it correctly.

I still think that we need to get the guys in a brainstorming session and transform that "Lebombo bone" into a modern tool. Think of it like an ipod. On one side you input the data and on the other side you get the time and cost savings.

I think that I just came up with the next ORACLE market penetration idea :) load your software of choice on ur ipod for $9.99/mo :)

With kind regards,

Samer