Hi all,
I have a very detailed risk analysis for my project (different risks, different uncertainties with different distributions,...). And now I would like to see the "absolute" minimum and maximum end dates.
Ofcourse since Monte Carlo Analysis is based on random iterations, I can never say with certainty what the shortest project duration is (think extremely happy flow, all uncertainties getting the minimum durations). I get the minimum from OPRA but next time I run the simulation I might get a new minimum (or maximum).
I know this defies the purpose of statistical nature of Monte Carlo but I am wondering whether there is an option to first find the extreme values on the both ends of the spectrum and then fill in the between (something like a polygraph, jumping to the both extremes first and then filling the values the fall within those two).
I have tried increasing the iterations to 20000 (higher than 99% confidence level) but this still is not hitting the sweet spots.
any ideas?
br.
AR